Saturday, July 12, 2014

Tropical Storm Rammasun Update #4

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 071314

Tropical Storm Rammasun continues to struggle developing as it moves across the Western Pacific. The system was last located approximately 640km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Rammasun is moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows that while the convection remains strong, the system as a whole isn't really that organized. The low-level circulation center is still displaced east of the clouds as strong wind shear hamper development. Furthermore, there is no clear banding taking shape--a sign that the Rammasun isn't really intensifying.

Conditions are marginally favorable for development so we are not expecting any substantial intensification to happen within the next 24 hours. In fact, at this rate, Rammasun may find it difficult to intensify into a Typhoon which is good news for the Philippines.

As far as the track is concerned, we are still thinking that Rammasun will impact the Philippines one way or another by the middle of next week. We will continue watching the trends to see if the system will intensify in the coming days.

We'll have another update later today.

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