Sunday, July 13, 2014

Tropical Storm Rammasun (Glenda) Update #5

Issued (13 UTC) 9pm PhT 071314

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Tropical Storm Rammasun has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Glenda' by PAGASA on their next update. The system continues to struggle amidst the strong wind shear in the region. Rammasun was last located approximately 1,100km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Rammasun is moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection remains strong but the center of circulation continues to be displaced from the cloud cluster. There is still high wind shear in the region and that is not allowing the system to consolidate and deepen. In fact, majority of computer models and agencies have lowered their intensity forecasts for the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Out latest forecast track reflects the recent changes in the computer model outputs as well as taking into account the current situation in the Philippine Sea. We no longer expect Rammasun (Glenda) to become a Typhoon. However, that does not mean the system will no longer pose a threat to the Philippines.

Rammasun is forecast to move towards Luzon and could make landfall somewhere in the Aurora/Quezon Provinces. It will begin affecting the Bicol Region by Tuesday morning and then making landfall in Luzon by Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts of up to 200mm should be expected across much of Luzon, including Metro Manila. Flooding and landslides are possible. Rammasun will then move into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by Wednesday morning.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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