Sunday, November 2, 2014

Super Typhoon Nuri (Paeng) Update #5

Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 110314

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Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to rapidly intensify and is now a Category 4 Super Typhoon. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 970km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,080km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 250kph with gusts of up to 305kph. STY Nuri is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the pinhole eye of Nuri surrounded by deep and very strong convective activity. Radial outflow is also very strong and robust feeder bands continue to aid in development. It is very likely that Nuri will be upgraded into a Category 5 Super Typhoon tomorrow morning. Further intensification is even possible as conditions in the region are still favorable for tropical cyclones.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Thankfully, this very powerful cyclone will remain over water over the next few days. Latest forecast consensus is taking Nuri north across the Pacific and eventually recurve to the northeast. It may still move close enough to bring mild impacts across the southern coast of Honshu by Wednesday and Thursday. High waves, gusty winds, and light rains are possible during that time frame.

We'll have another update in the morning.

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