Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded 93W into a Tropical Depression while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and PAGASA are keeping it as a weak low pressure area. This system has the potential to bring heavy rains across Central Philippines in the next few days. Here is our latest update on this system and also 2-day Christmas Forecast for the Philippines.
IR Image from NRLMRY
TD 93W was last located approximately 640km east of Surigao City. Maximum winds are around 40 to 60kph. The system is moving west northwestward at 30kph. IR Image above shows the system showing little improvement. Convective activity has persisted but is rather sparse and mediocre. The system is in an area of moderate wind shear so not a good environment for development. However, there is still a chance of it becoming a tropical storm so we'll watch it closely.
Track and Rainfall (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Map above shows the idealized forecast track from computer models. Note that the storm is somewhat north-heavy meaning that much of the rains are located north of the center. For this image, we expect the heaviest of rains to be felt across Visayas Islands, less across Mindanao. Some rains may also impact Luzon by Wednesday. Areas under green are forecast to receive around 50mm or rain; blue could get up to 100mm while areas under red shading could get as much as 150mm of rain over the next two days.
December 25 Forecast
For Christmas Day, expect rains to begin impacting Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Some light rain showers may also move into Southern Luzon particularly in the Bicol Region. Northern Luzon provinces should also expect occasional light rains due to the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). Rest of the country, especially along the western sections, should have quieter weather with partly cloudy skies and small chances of rain.
December 26 Forecast
By Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to be moving across Visayas Islands. By this time, rainfall will be more widespread impacting not only Visayas but also parts of Mindanao and Luzon. Still, the heaviest of rains should be across the islands of Cebu, Panay, and Negros. Converging winds may also bring heavy rains across Eastern Luzon particularly across Aurora and Isabela. Furthermore, the Northeast Monsoon will continue to provide damp and cool weather across Northern Luzon.
Please note that the forecast images above are NOT OFFICIAL! Always listen to your local officials (PAGASA) for the latest forecast for your area. We won't have an update tomorrow; our next one will be on the 26th--Wednesday. Stay safe and have a Merry Christmas!!
Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 122412