Sunday, December 30, 2012

Tropical Update

Remnants of Wukong, ITCZ, Cold-Front, and a possible tropical cyclone development contain our Tropical Update for today.

IR Image from NRLMRY

We begin with the remnants of Wukong and the ITCZ which have brought heavy rains across Indochina over the past 24 hours. As expected, the convection associated with Wukong's energy has moved southwestward into Indochina, particularly into the Malay Peninsula. Areas across the Thailand and Malaysia border have reported nearly 100mm of rain since yesterday. Unfortunately, precipitation will continue across this region throughout tomorrow.

Meanwhile, frontal systems continue to move across East Asia, with the latest one bringing mixed bag of precipitation across Japan. The tail-end of that cold front is enhancing some rain showers across Eastern Taiwan and also in Northern Luzon. The northernmost provinces such as Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora, including the islands of Babuyan and Calayan, will continue to have damp weather with scattered to widespread light to moderate rains. As much as 50mm of rain could fall here through tomorrow. Rest of the Philippines will have partly cloudy skies with possible rain across the eastern portions of Visayas and also out in the Bicol Region.

Finally, we are watching a cluster of thunderstorms moving across Western Micronesia. We've mentioned yesterday about the possibility of a cyclone forming sometime next week. Today, computer models continue to hint at that scenario and this particular cloud cluster could definitely develop into a disturbance. Wind shear is still moderate but latest analysis show vorticity in the region is increasing which is usually indicative of a low pressure area beginning to form. As of this time, the chances of development are still low. As far as the forecast is concerned, we won't expect a cyclone formation until perhaps by the middle of next week. For now, though, just be aware that the chances of seeing our first storm in 2013 is increasing.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 123012

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