Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Tropical Update

The Western Pacific Basin is currently quiet and free from Tropical Cyclones. However, a developing disturbance could eventually become a cyclone. Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon remains weak across Northern Luzon while the Easterlies are bringing scattered rains across Visayas and Mindanao.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 93W has been spotted near the Marshall Islands--a few thousand kilometers east of the Philippines. The disturbance is still pretty disorganized and is still in the early stages of development. We are watching this system closely because a number of computer models have been suggesting a cyclone development in the Pacific for at least 2 days now. If a system does form, there's some possibility of it impacting the Philippines by next week.

While we are in December and we don't really see a lot of tropical cyclone by this time, the region is still conducive for these systems to form. In the case of 93W, there's light to moderate wind shear and sea temperatures are warm enough. But since it's still disorganized, we're not expecting it to become a depression for the next 3 days.

As for the Philippines, the Northeast Monsoon hasn't been that strong these past few days. Much of the cold air is still locked across Northern Asia and there's no sign of any significant cooldown until perhaps near Christmas. On the other hand, the Easterlies continue to bring scattered light to moderate rains across Visayas and Mindanao. Some areas such as Samar and Leyte could see up to 50mm over the next two days. Some rains could also move across the areas impacted by Bopha.

Finally, latest updates that we have gotten indicate that the death toll from Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) has risen to more than 1040 while the estimated damage has ballooned to more than P24 billion. Unfortunately, hundreds are still missing and we expect the death toll, as well as the economic damage, to rise even further.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 121812

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