Friday, September 12, 2014

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Luis) Update #2

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 091214

A Tropical Depression 15W has intensified into Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis). The system was last located approximately 620km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Kalmaegi is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the province of Catanduanes.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image continues to show improvements regarding Kalmaegi's organization. Central convection remains strong and banding continues to improve. Radial outflow is good as well as the system takes advantage of the favorable conditions in the region. The system could start rapidly intensifying tonight and into tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will continue on a westward movement tonight but should start turning more to the west northwest by tomorrow. Favorable conditions will promote continued intensification right before landfall. There hasn't been much change with the forecast track. We're still thinking Kalmaegi (Luis) will make landfall somewhere in Central or Northern Luzon by Sunday evening as a strong Typhoon. Rains will start impacting Southern Luzon and Visayas and will shift northward by Saturday.

Please closely monitor the progress of this storm and as always heed the warnings of your local officials. We'll have another update tomorrow.

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