Friday, September 12, 2014

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Luis) Update #3

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 091314

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) has intensified even further overnight as it nears the Philippine Islands. The system was last located approximately 530km east of Virac, Catanduanes or about 790km southwest of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Kalmaegi is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Isabela, Southern Cagayan, Northern Aurora, and Catanduanes.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection continuing to increase in and around Kalmaegi's circulation. The system is still battling some northerly shear but good radial outflow is helping it to continue intensification. Furthermore, rain clouds are now moving into parts of the Philippines this morning bringing heavy rains to the region. Rains will continue to spread westward and northward today and into tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will continue moving westward and then turn northwestward by tonight. Strong winds and heavy rains will soon be felt across the Bicol Region by tomorrow morning. Kalmaegi may also reach Typhoon intensity by tomorrow morning (Sunday). Central and Northern Luzon, including Metro Manila, will also start seeing some stormy weather by tonight which will worsen by tomorrow.

Kalmaegi is forecast to make landfall somewhere in the provinces of Aurora or Isabela by Sunday evening as a strong and dangerous typhoon. Heavy rains and strong winds will affect Central and Northern Luzon by Sunday and into Monday. Parts of Southern Luzon will also see stormy conditions.

Residents across Luzon and parts of Visayas should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. If you live in areas under Signal Warnings, especially in Northern Luzon, please start preparing now.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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