Saturday, September 13, 2014

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Luis) Update #4

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 091314

Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) has further intensified and is now a Typhoon! The system was last located approximately 370km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 520km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Kalmaegi is mowing west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 11pm tonight, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Isabela and Cagayan. Signal #2 for Calayan and Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Northern Aurora. Signal #1 for Batanes Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Benguet, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Rest of Aurora, Polilio Island, and Catanduanes.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continuing to develop and intensify. Strong convective activity in and around the center continues as the system tries to form an eyewall. Kalmaegi remains in an area of favorable conditions and we expect further intensification until landfall tomorrow.

Radar Image from ClimateX

Latest radar image shows heavy rains moving across Central and Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila. Rains will continue overnight and will spread northwards by tomorrow morning. Up to 100mm of rain is possible in the next 24 hours which could cause some flooding and landslides. Rain will not taper off in Luzon until Monday.

 For the latest radar image, please click HERE (ClimateX PH Website)

Typhoon Kalmaegi will continue moving west northwestward over the next 24 hours. It will also continue to intensify and could become a Category 2 Typhoon by tomorrow afternoon. Kalmaegi is forecast to make landfall in Northern Luzon by tomorrow night (Sunday). The provinces of Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan will see the strongest winds as the system moves ashore. Entire Northern Luzon will also see stormy conditions Sunday and into Monday. Parts of Central and Southern Luzon, including Manila, will also see stormy conditions tomorrow and into Monday.

If you live in the areas mentioned in our update, please prepare now and always follow the warnings of your local officials! We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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