Saturday, September 13, 2014

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Luis) Update #5

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 091414

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Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) has maintained its intensity as it moves ever closer to Luzon. The system was last located approximately 320km north northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 350km east of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Kalmaegi is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Quirino, and Northern Aurora. Signal #2 for Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, and Rest of Aurora. Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Catanduanes, and Polilio Island.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continuing to strengthen and become more uniform. Good radial outflow is helping the system overcome the moderate wind shear in the region. Further analysis also reveals a developing eyewall which could become fully complete later and could lead to an eye forming before it makes landfall.

Bands of moderate to heavy rains continue to affect Luzon and parts of Visayas. Many places have already received 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours alone. Additional 100mm of rain is still possible and will shift northward towards Northern Luzon later today. There could be 200 to 300mm of rain falling in that region until Monday and flooding and landslides are highly possible.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) will continue moving west northwestward and will continue to intensify before it moves inland. We have adjusted our track slightly northward and are now expecting Kalmaegi to make landfall somewhere in the Isabela/Cagayan area by tonight. By that time, Kalmaegi could be a powerful and dangerous Category 2 Typhoon. It will cross Northern Luzon and exit through Ilocos Norte by early Monday morning. Weather conditions will not improve until Monday afternoon.

Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials! We'll have another update later today.

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