Sunday, November 3, 2013

Tropical Update

Issued (1530 UTC) 1130pm PhT 110313

We are currently watching two potential cyclones developing in the Western Pacific (aside from Tropical Storm Krosa). One low pressure area (TD 30W) is actually already affecting the Philippines, while the other is moving south of the Marianas Islands.

IR Image from NOAA

The first tropical disturbance was last located approximately 260km east southeast of Surigao City in Mindanao. This system is moving west northwestward at 20kph and is already bringing light to moderate rains across parts of Mindanao and Eastern Visayas. While the system is still largely disorganized, the rain clouds associated with the disturbance will still bring unsettled weather across the southern half of the Philippines in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The other LPA (TD 31W) is moving in the middle of the Pacific and is located well southeast of the Marianas Islands. This system has the potential to become a strong cyclone in the coming days due to the favorable conditions along the path. Long-range forecasts from computer models are also suggesting that this system could threaten the Philippines by next week.

We'll continue closely monitoring these two systems over the next few days.

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