Saturday, October 19, 2013

Super Typhoon Francisco Update #8

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 102013

Super Typhoon Francisco continues to move across the West Philippine Sea this morning. The eye of Francisco was last located approximately 940km northwest of Guam or about 1,360km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 260kph with gusts of up to 315kph. Super Typhoon Francisco is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows the eye remains well-defined and surrounded by strong convective activity. However, recent analysis suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle may be occurring which could lead to slight weakening in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, good radial outflow and warm sea surface temperatures should keep the weakening down to a minimum.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Francisco should be able to keep its Super Typhoon intensity until late tomorrow. It will also be entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow evening but is not forecast to impact the Philippines. Francisco will, then, move just east of Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands beginning Tuesday and could bring strong winds and light to moderate rains in the region.

Cooler sea surface temperatures and strong wind shear will lead to weakening starting Tuesday but should remain a powerful and dangerous typhoon as it nears the Japanese Islands. Latest computer models suggset a landfall near Shikoku and the Kii Peninsula in the island of Honshu. Francisco could make landfall by Thursday afternoon as a strong Category 2 Typhoon. Strong winds, heavy rains, and high waves will definitely be the main threats in the area during that time.

We'll have another update later today.

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