Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Tropical Update

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 070314

A developing Tropical Disturbance (Invest 90W) continues to slowly consolidate over the warm Pacific Waters. This Low Pressure Area is expected to intensify into a Tropical Depression later today by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA).

Invest 90W was last located approximately 520km southeast of Guam. The low-level circulation center is still broad but is continuing to consolidate. Furthermore, convective activity in and around the circulation has increased over the past 24 hours.

IR Image from NOAA

Invest 90W will continue moving across a favorable region in the Western Pacific. Most computer models agree that this system will steadily intensify over the next few days and could even become a typhoon by this weekend. While the forecast track is still too early to be determined, preliminary analysis suggests that 90W may move northwestward and could impact parts of Japan by next week.

We'll have another update on this system as soon as it gets upgraded to a Tropical Depression.

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