Thursday, July 3, 2014

Tropical Depression 08W Update #1

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 070314

Tropical Depression 08W has formed over the Western Pacific earlier today. The system was last located approximately 360km south of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 08W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from CIMSS

Latest satellite image shows a very large system with the broad low-level circulation still continuing to consolidate. Strong convective activity is still somewhat limited to the southern half as the northern periphery of the circulation is being impinged by upper level winds. This situation is keeping much of the rains south of Guam and the rest of the Marianas Islands. However, isolated thunderstorms can still impact the islands throughout the night.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track shows TD 08W moving generally west northwestward over the next few days. There is good consensus among the computer models so we do have ample confidence with this current forecast. Due to the favorable conditions in the region, TD 08W should be able to intensify steadily--becoming a Tropical Storm by tomorrow and even intensifying into a Typhoon by this weekend.

There is still uncertainty, though, on where the system will end up by next week. However, there is an increasingly good agreement that parts of Japan may be impacted by this system around that time. We will keep tweaking our forecasts as we get more data over the next few days.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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