Saturday, April 5, 2014

Tropical Storm Peipah Update #5

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 040514

Tropical Storm Peipah has maintained its strength as it continues to move across the Pacific. The system was last located approximately 540km southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Peipah is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection remains fragmented and shallow as the system continues to battle moderate easterly wind shear. Diurnal cycle also contributes to the lack of any strong convective activity earlier in the day. The image above also shows clouds are beginning to move in towards the Republic of Palau and to the island of Yap. Breezy conditions and light to moderate rains will soon impact the region.

Stormy conditions will last through late tomorrow night, especially for Palau. It is also around this time that we expect the system to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility; it will be assigned the name 'Bagyong Domeng' by PAGASA once that happens.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

We have tweaked our forecast track today. First, we no longer expect Peipah to become a Typhoon. However, there is still a small possibility, but that all depends if the wind shear weakens significantly enough. Second, the chances of landfall somewhere in the Philippines have increased and so we have shifted our track farther south and we now expect Peipah to move either towards Mindanao or the Visayas.

We still have low to moderate confidence with the forecast for the Philippines as the track and the intensity can still change. However, the likelihood of stormy conditions impacting Southern Philippines beginning Monday and lasting into Wednesday is increasing. We recommend residents living in these areas to continue monitoring the developments of Tropical Storm Peipah.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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