Sunday, April 6, 2014

Tropical Storm Peipah Update #6

Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 040614

Tropical Storm Peipah continues to struggle amidst the moderate wind shear in the region. The storm was last located approximately 160km southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Peipah is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Peipah is still very disorganized with much of the convection being displaced to the west. Moderate easterly wind shear has been hampering development for the past two days and the satellite presentation has actually gotten slightly worse today with the low-level circulation center being partially exposed. Nevertheless, Peipah is still bringing copious amount of rainfall across Palau. As much as 100mm of rain has already fallen since yesterday and another 50 to 100mm could fall tonight.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Stormy conditions across Palau should end in the next 12 to 24 hours. We are also expecting Peipah to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tonight, which should then be given the local name 'Bagyong Domeng' by PAGASA.

TS Peipah still have about three days over the open waters of the Philippine Sea. However, since the wind shear is expected to remain on the moderate side, we're limiting the intensification forecast for Peipah. Based on the latest data from the computer models and other sources, there is an increasing chance for landfall somewhere in the Southern Philippines by Tuesday and into Wednesday as a strong Tropical Storm. Heavy rains, strong winds, and storm surge will be the main threats across the eastern seaboard. Please remain vigilant and continue monitoring the development of this system.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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