Friday, April 4, 2014

Tropical Depression 05W Update #3

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 040414

Tropical Depression 05W failed to intensify into a Tropical Storm today as it continued to move across the Pacific. The system was last located approximately 1,100km east southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 05W is moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection is beginning to rebuild in and around TD 05W's center. Moderate wind shear has hampered the development of this system, especially earlier in the day where the low-level center was left partially exposed. We expect this shear to relax slightly in the coming days allowing TD 05W to resume intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our forecast track remains generally the same and we still expect TD 05W to continue moving westward, moving near Palau by Monday. We are also expecting TD 05W to resume intensification and could still become a named Tropical Storm by tomorrow. Long-range forecasts point to a movement near or towards the Philippines by early next week. Right now, it is still difficult to pinpoint the intensity and exact track so our confidence remains low.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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