Sunday, July 20, 2014

Typhoon Matmo (Henry) Update #5

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 072114

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Typhoon Matmo (Bagyong Henry) has maintained its strength as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The center of the storm was last located approximately 500km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 760km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Matmo is currently moving north northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands, Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows cold convective cloud tops covering much of Matmo's circulation. However, as intense as the satellite image may seem, further analysis suggest that this cyclone is still struggling to develop its core. The eyewall is not even formed yet and the low-level center is badly sheared from the main convection. This is suggesting that Matmo is still battling strong wind shear and is not intensifying as fast as we were forecasting it to be.

The satellite image above also shows clouds moving into Luzon and Visayas. We're expecting light to moderate rains to impact the area, especially along the eastern coast. Bicol, Quezon, Catanduanes, Samar, and nearby provinces should expect 50 to 100mm of rain today. Even Metro Manila will see some scattered rains.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Matmo will continue moving north northwestward across the Philippine Sea over the next 2 days. We are still expecting the vertical wind shear to weaken which should allow Matmo to intensify even more. Right now, we are forecasting the system to make landfall in Taiwan as a strong Category 3 Typhoon by Wednesday morning--in line with the forecasts of other agencies in the region.

Despite not making landfall in the Philippines, Luzon and Visayas will continue to see light to moderate rains over the next few days which may cause flooding and landslides in prone areas. The northeastern part of Luzon and the islands of Batanes may also see some strong winds and heavy rains as the center of Matmo moves near the area by Wednesday.

We'll have another update later today.

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