Thursday, July 17, 2014

Tropical Storm Matmo (Henry) Update #1

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 071814

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A new Tropical Cyclone has developed over the Philippine Sea this morning. Tropical Storm Matmo (Bagyong Henry) was last located approximately 350km north of Palau or about 1,200km east of Cebu City. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Matmo is moving north northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a cyclone in early stages of development. Central convection remains strong with banding becoming more organized this morning. There is some northeasterly wind shear that will limit intensification for a while but the the rest of the circulation looks to be improving.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast is based on the latest computer model guidance and the latest flow in the atmosphere; we have low confidence with the forecast mainly due to the system forming less than 24 hours ago. Our current track will take Matmo generally northwestward across the Philippine Sea over the next 3 to 4 days.

It will also intensify steadily and could become a Typhoon this weekend. Right now, it's too early to tell where this system will make landfall. However, residents from Northern Luzon all the way to the Southern Japanese Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this developing Tropical Storm.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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