Saturday, October 4, 2014

Typhoon Phanfone Update #7

Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 100414

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Typhoon Phanfone has slightly weakened as it nears the Southern coast of Japan. The system was last located approximately 190km east northeast of the island of Amami or about 380km northeast of the island of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 195kph with gusts of up to 250kph. Typhoon Phanfone is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows the large eye of Phanfone remains well-organized despite conditions becoming less favorable for tropical cyclones. Convection has slightly weakened as well. Pretty soon, dry air and increasing vertical wind shear will induce more weakening over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image in the region shows the western eyewall of Phanfone moving near the island of Amami in the northern part of the Ryukyu Islands. Winds of up to 120kph have also been recorded in the areas. Rains and strong winds are also beginning to move northwards and are starting to be felt across the island of Kyushu. We're expecting 100 to 200mm of rain to fall to parts of Kyushu and Shikoku today and into tomorrow.

For the latest update and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Phanfone is currently rounding the western periphery of the Subtropical Ridge. It should start turning to the northeast later today. However, the eastern coast of Kyushu will be experiencing stormy conditions that will last through the evening hours. Parts of Shikoku and Honshu will also start experiencing effects from Typhoon Phanfone later this afternoon. The storm can still disrupt the Japanese Grand Prix being held at 3pm local time today (Sunday).

Phanfone is forecast to make landfall somewhere in Chubu or Kinki Region by early Monday morning as a weakening Category 2 typhoon. It will be moving quickly to the northeast spreading rain and strong winds across Honshu. The storm will also be moving very close to the Tokyo Metro Area by Monday afternoon and will bring dangerous conditions in the area as well.

We'll have another update later today.

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