Saturday, October 4, 2014

Typhoon Vongfong Update #2

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 100514

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Vongfong has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours and is now a Category 1 Typhoon. The storm center was last located approximately 580km east southeast of Guam or about 560km southeast of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Vongfong is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Warning for Guam, Rota, T inian, and Saipan. Furthermore, Guam has now been placed under Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 (TCCOR 2). Residents are urged to complete all preparations for the incoming typhoon.Damaging winds are expected to start occurring within 24 hours. Always listen and heed the warnings of your local officials!

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast of Vongfong moving closer to the Mariana Islands. A small eye is also starting to develop as the system continues to intensify. Due to the favorable environmental conditions in the region, we expect Vongfong to continue intensify and could even become a Category 2 Typhoon before it moves across the Mariana Islands.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Vongfong will continue to move generally west northwestward. It is forecast to pass between Guam and Saipan and move near the island of Rota later this evening. Tropical Storm winds and rains will start affecting the islands later this afternoon and will last through the morning hours of tomorrow (Monday). Winds of up to 100kph are possible in Saipan and Guam while strong typhoon winds of up to 160kph are possible in Rota. Rainfall amounts of up to 200mm are also possible as the system moves through.

Typhoon Vongfong will also continue intensifying over the next few days as it moves across the Philippine Sea. Computer models are in good agreement with the track for Vongfong over the next 3 days and we have medium confidence with our forecast track above.

If you live in Guam or in other parts of the Mariana Islands, now is the time to prepare and take shelter as the system is forecast to pass overnight. We'll continue to have updates over the next few hours. Stay safe!

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