Friday, October 3, 2014

Typhoon Phanfone (Neneng) Update #6

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 100414

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Typhoon Phanfone (Bagyong Neneng) has regained intensity after completing an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 520km east southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 215kph with gusts of up to 270kph, making Phanfone a Category 4 typhoon in the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The system is currently moving north northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye has become more organized and is also much larger this morning. The center continues to be surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Weak wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow further intensification and should allow Phanfone to reach its peak intensity later this afternoon.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

While Okinawa will be spared of the storm, the tiny islands of Daito-Jima will bear the brunt. Winds of up to 100kph are already being reported in the area and will continue through the afternoon hours. By tonight, parts of Kyushu and Shikoku will start feeling the effects of Phanfone. The system will also slow down as it recurves to the northeast by tomorrow.

Typhoon Phanfone is forecast to make landfall in Kinki Region and will pass south of Nagoya by Sunday afternoon. The system may bring heavy rains towards Suzuka Circuit where the Formula 1 (F1) Japanese Grand Prix is being held. Phanfone will bring damaging winds, and heavy rains of up to 300mm in the region. It will move eastward quickly towards Chubu and Kanto Regions, passing near the Tokyo Metro Area by Monday afternoon. By then, Phanfone will have weakened to a Category 1 Typhoon but will still bring dangerous conditions in the area.

If you live in the areas mentioned, please prepare now. As always, heed the warnings of your local officials! Stay safe!

We'll have another update for Phanfone and Tropical Storm Vongfong later this afternoon.

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