Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 100114
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continues to quickly intensify today and has been upgraded to a Typhoon
by the JTWC. The system was last located approximately 380km northwest
of Saipan or about 480km north northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained
winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Phanfone is
moving west northwestward at 20kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
satellite image shows a rapidly developing cyclone with a small but
organized central dense overcast. Strong convective bands continue to
wrap around the center. Furthermore, outflow remains excellent
especially along the western and southern portions of the circulation.
Environmental conditions across the Philippine Sea are highly favorable
and should help Phanfone continue its quick intensification.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
have been some important changes with the forecasts from the weather
computer models that we use. Most of them have shifted west and are now
positioned much closer to Japan. In response, we have shifted our
forecast track slightly to the west and closely resembles the Japan
Meteorological Agency's forecast track.
expecting Phanfone to continue moving generally northwestward over the
next few days, intensifying along the way. It may reach a peak intensity
of up to Category 4 strength by the weekend. Uncertainty remains
regarding the eventual track and models are virtually split on this. One
camp shows a westward track towards Okinawa, while the other camp shows
a recurve towards Mainland Japan. Whatever the case may be, we urge
everyone from Taiwan to Okinawa all the way to Mainland Japan to closely
pay attention to the progress and development of Typhoon Phanfone.
We'll have anther update tomorrow.