Sunday, March 15, 2015

Tropical Storm Bavi Update #5

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 031615

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Tropical Storm Bavi has slightly weakened  has it moves away from the Mariana Islands. The system was last located approximately 460km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Bavi is moving westward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity still persists. However, much of the clouds are being displaced west of the circulation due to strong wind shear. These unfavorable conditions are hampering Bavi's development and will likely limit the system's intensity as it nears the Philippine Islands.

Tropical Storm Bavi will continue moving generally westward and should enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow. PAGASA will assign the local name 'Bagyong Betty' once the systems enters the PAR.

We're not expecting Bavi to intensify significantly. It may even weaken to a Tropical Depression before it starts affecting the Philippines by Thursday. Based on the current track projections, Bavi may impact Luzon as a weak cyclone and will bring widespread light to moderate rains across the region later in the week.

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