Monday, March 16, 2015

Tropical Storm Bavi Update #6

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 031715

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Tropical Storm Bavi continues to struggle amidst the unfavorable conditions in the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 920km west northwest of Guam or roughly 1,600km east of the island of Luzon. Maximum sustained winds have weakened to 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Bavi is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective activity has significantly diminished overnight. Wind shear remains moderate and some dry air is being entrained into the circulation. Poleward outflow is good, however, and is helping to offset the effects of the wind shear.

Tropical Storm Bavi will continue moving generally westward over the next 2 to 3 days. The system is forecast to impact Luzon as a Tropical Depression sometime Thursday. Widespread light to moderate rains should be expected this time, especially across Central and Northern Luzon.

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