Friday, March 13, 2015

Tropical Storm Bavi Update #3

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT

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Tropical Storm Bavi continues to move quickly across the Western Pacific as it threatens to impact the Mariana Islands in the next few days. The system was last located approximately 960km east of Guam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Bavi is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

A Typhoon Watch has now been issued by the National Weather Service for Guam, Rota, and Tinian for the possibility of strong winds due to Tropical Storm Bavi. Residents are advised to closely monitor the developments of this approaching cyclone.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Bavi maintaining its appearance as yesterday. Moderate wind shear and a little of dry air have been impeding intensification and has kept much of the convective activity on the western periphery of the cyclone. However, we still expect the system to intensify a little bit more as it approaches the Mariana Islands.

Tropical Storm Bavi is forecast to continue its generally westward movement in the next few days. Latest forecasts from different agencies put the system towards Guam by Monday morning bringing the threat of strong winds, high waves, and heavy rain. Rest of the Mariana Islands will also be impacted by this storm around that time frame.

Tropical Storm Bavi will then continue moving westward and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday evening. The storm could potentially impact the Philippines later next week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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