Friday, October 16, 2015

Typhoon Koppu (Lando) Update #2

Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PHT 101715

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Koppu (Bagyong Lando) rapidly intensified from a Tropical Storm less than 48 hours ago and now to a Category 3 Typhoon. The system is also beginning to approach the island of Luzon in the Philippines with the eye last located approximately 200km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 330km northeast of Metro Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Koppu is currently moving westward at 15kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Aurora, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Ifugao, Northern Quezon, Polilio Islands.

Signal #2 for Cagayan, Calayan and Babuyan Islands, Benguet, Mt. Province, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Rizal, Rest of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes.

Signal #1 for Batanes, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Albay, Camarines Sur, Metro Manila.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a large central dense overcast with very strong convective activity in all quadrants. We are also starting to see the eye becoming clearer this morning. Dual outflow channels have also significantly improved and is helping drive the intensification that we are currently seeing. The warm waters of the Philippine Sea and weak wind shear will promote further intensification over the next 6 to 12 hours. This is a very dangerous typhoon and should not be taken lightly by the residents in the area, especially in Northern Luzon.

COAMPS 72-hour Accumulated Rainfall Output (FNMOC)

Typhoon Koppu is forecast to bring significant amounts of rainfall for much of Luzon. The worse part is the fact that the system is moving very slowly which will prolong the period of heavy rainfall, especially along the path of the typhoon. A recent computer model output shows as much as 500mm of rainfall in some places in Northern and Central Luzon. Please note that the image above is just one of the many computer model generated outputs that we use and is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. However, it gives us a general idea on what to expect regarding Typhoon Koppu. Widespread flooding and landslides should be expected in the regions under a Signal Warning, especially near flood-prone and mountainous areas.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Koppu (Bagyong Lando) is forecast to continue moving slowly westward and may intensify into a Category 4 Typhoon later this evening. The eye is forecast to make landfall in the province of Aurora (near the town of Casiguran) tomorrow morning (Sunday). However, heavy rains and strong winds should be felt later today along the coastal sections. Rains will spread west across much of Luzon including Metro Manila and the Bicol Region.

Koppu/Lando will significantly weaken upon landfall tomorrow but strong, damaging winds, and very heavy rain will be felt further inland. The slow movement of Koppu will contribute to significant rainfall amounts in the region. By Monday, Koppu is forecast to turn northward and weaken as a Tropical Storm. By Tuesday, the system should move out of Luzon and possibly head towards Taiwan.

If you live in the areas under Signal Warnings and are in a storm-prone area, please heed the warnings of your local officials. Now is the time to make preparations as landfall may occur within the next 24 hours.

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