Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Tropical Storm Koppu Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 101415

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Tropical Storm Koppu is the latest cyclone to form in the Western Pacific and the 24th named storm in the basin this year. The system is currently moving across the Philippine Sea and was last located approximately 920km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Koppu is moving westward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows moderate to strong convection although much of this activity is being sheared west of the circulation center. Current conditions are not highly favorable for further development. However, wind shear is forecast to weaken along the projected track which should help Koppu to slowly intensify in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Koppu is forecast to generally move westward in the coming days under the influence of the subtropical ridge in the Pacific. Increasingly favorable conditions along the path of Koppu will promote intensification with most computer models showing it becoming a Typhoon later this week. Koppu is also expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this evening and will be named "Bagyong Lando" by PAGASA.

While the forecast track for Tropical Storm Koppu is still uncertain at this time, the consensus among the computer models along with the current atmospheric patterns in the Pacific shows a generally westward path for the storm. With that said, parts of the Philippines may feel the effects of Koppu later this weekend. Residents in the region should continue to closely monitor the developments of TS Koppu.

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