Saturday, October 15, 2016

Tropical Storm Haima Update #1

Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 101616

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Tropical Storm Haima continues to intensify as it moves into the Philippine Sea today. The storm center was last located approximately 700km southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Haima is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows the wide expanse of Tropical Storm Haima (compared to Typhoon Sarika 'Bagyong Karen' which is now exiting the Philippine island of Luzon) with a deepening central convection and excellent radial outflow. The system is currently moving into a very favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and light to moderate wind shear. Further intensification is a given, with typhoon intensity likely being reached later this evening.

Tropical Storm Haima poses is a significant threat to the Philippine Islands later this week. Current forecast guidance suggests a continued movement to the west northwestward direction with the track possibly bringing the storm towards Luzon in the next few days. Rapid intensification is also possible with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center currently forecasting Haima to become a Category 5 Super Typhoon before it impacts the Philippines.

As Typhoon Sarika (Bagyong Karen) moves out of the Philippines, all eyes should turn towards Haima as it could very much pose a dangerous threat to the country.

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