Friday, July 4, 2014

Tropical Storm Neoguri Update #3

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 070414

Tropical Storm Neoguri continues to intensify as it moves across the Western Pacific. The system was last located approximately 450km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Neoguri is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Neoguri continuing to organize and consolidate. A rugged eye is starting to form surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Excellent outflow, weak wind shear, and very warm sea temperatures are leading to the intensification that we are seeing right now. We expect Neoguri to continue strengthening over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

We didn't make any significant change with our forecast track as the computer models are still in very good agreement with this storm. We are still thinking of a generally northwesterly track possibly towards the Southern Japanese Islands by early next week. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will get the local name "Florita" (as given by PAGASA). While Neoguri is not forecast to directly impact the Philippines, it will still enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) which will bring scattered showers across the country.

Tropical Storm Neoguri should easily reach Category 3 intensity or higher. In fact, some computer models are suggesting that it may Super Typhoon strength. By Monday and Tuesday, we expect the system to start turning more to the north and will approach Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands by this time. We will continue to tweak our forecast as we get more confidence with the exact track of this cyclone.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Continue to monitor the developments of Neoguri and always listen to your country's local meteorological office. Stay safe!

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