Sunday, July 6, 2014

Typhoon Neoguri (Florita) Update #8

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 070614

Typhoon Neoguri (Bagyong Florita) has maintained intensity as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Neoguri was last located approximately 860km south southeast of Okinawa or about 1,080km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 220kph with gusts of up to 280kph. Typhoon Neoguri is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Neoguri has cleared up after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle earlier this morning. Convection remains strong however, we have noticed a warming in the cloud tops which may indicate that the cyclone is no longer intensifying. Further analysis also suggests that dry air and a slight increase in wind shear are hampering the continued intensification that we were forecasting before.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Despite the halt in intensification, we still think Neoguri will maintain that powerful and dangerous Category 4 strength as it approaches Okinawa by Tuesday. Furthermore, our latest forecast track is still expecting the system to briefly attain Super Typhoon Category 5 status before gradually weakening after.

We have also shifted our track slightly westward. We now expect the eye to pass within 100km of the island of Okinawa by Tuesday morning. Bands of rain will start to push through the Japanese Islands by Monday evening with the strongest winds following by Tuesday morning and lasting into the afternoon hours. Damaging winds of up to 200kph are possible so please do not try to head out in the middle of the storm.

Please stay safe, if you haven't done so already, please prepare now and stock up on food and water. Always refer to the JMA or your local officials for the latest warnings and forecasts for your area.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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