Saturday, July 5, 2014

Typhoon Neoguri (Florita) Update #6

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 070514

Neoguri has rapidly intensified today, becoming a Category 4 Typhoon. The system is also nearing the Philippine Area of Responsibility and will soon be given the local name 'Bagyong Florita' by PAGASA. Typhoon Neoguri was last located approximately 1,270km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 215kph with gusts of up to 270kph. Neoguri is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Neoguri with its rugged eye surrounded by strong and deep convection. The system has rapidly intensified today but has leveled off in the past 6 hours as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. Once this process is finished, we expect the system to resume intensifying as it tracks across the Philippine Sea.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

There has been a significant change in our forecast track as we now expect Neoguri to move west of the island of Okinawa. This will put the strongest winds to the Japanese Islands. We expect Neoguri to intensify into a Category 5 Super Typhoon by tomorrow and will likely maintain that strength through Tuesday.

Rain showers and strong winds will begin to impact Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday. Neoguri will then track towards the island of Kyushu as a powerful Category 3 Typhoon before weakening significantly as it moves across Mainland Japan by late next week.

If you live in one of these Japanese Islands, please prepare NOW! As always, heed the warnings and forecasts from your country's official agency (JMA).

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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