Monday, August 4, 2014

Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #13

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 080414

Typhoon Halong (Bagyong Jose) continues to weaken after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 740km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,020km south southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Halong is moving northwestward at northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Halong with a weaker presentation compared to yesterday. The eye is no longer visible and convective activity has weakened and shrunk in size. Further analysis also indicate that the eyewall replacement cycle is unsuccessful with the northwestern flank becoming eroded. Halong might still be able to recover but we're not expecting any significant re-intensification to occur.

Typhoon Halong is now turning northward and should head on that general direction over the next 2 to 3 days. It will also keep weakening as the environment becomes less favorable for tropical cyclones. It will move near Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands beginning Thursday bringing tropical storm-force winds and periods of rain. Later in the week, Halong is forecast to strike Mainland Japan, likely in Shikoku as a weakening typhoon.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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