Sunday, August 3, 2014

Super Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #11

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 080314

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Super Typhoon Halong (Bagyong Jose) has maintained its intensity as it continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Halong was last located approximately 900km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,260km south southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds remain at 260kph with gusts of up to 315kph. Halong is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Halong remains well-established and so is the deep convection surrounding it. However, further analysis suggest the eyewall replacement cycle is starting to occur. This cycle will lead to partial weakening in the short term as Halong re-organizes its core. However, the system should remain a formidable typhoon over the next few days.

Super Typhoon Halong should turn more to the north by tomorrow and is still forecast to move near the Ryukyu Islands of Japan later this week.Due to the eyewall replacement cycle and increasingly unfavorable conditions, Halong is forecast to start slowly weakening over the next few days. However, as it approaches the Japanese Islands, it should still maintain a strong and dangerous Category 3 intensity. Residents in Okinawa and nearby islands to the north and east (Daito Islands) should continue to monitor the progress of Halong.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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