Thursday, July 31, 2014

Tropical Storm Halong Update #7

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 080114

Tropical Storm Halong continues to battle strong wind shear as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 600km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Halong is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection remains strong, especially along the southern flank. Halong exhibited improvements last night with an expanding central dense overcast and banding around the center. However, wind shear increased again this morning leaving the northern half struggling for development. Nevertheless, we still expect Halong to recover and resume intensification in the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Halong is forecast to continue moving across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. It will turn more to the northwest as the sub-tropical ridge weakens. Environmental conditions will become more favorable and should allow Halong to reach Typhoon-strength this weekend. Latest computer model runs put Halong near the Japanese Islands by the middle part of next week.

We'll have another update on Halong and Nakri later this afternoon.

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