Sunday, September 11, 2016

Typhoon Meranti (Ferdie) Update #1

Issued (0030z) 830am PhT 091216

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A new Tropical Cyclone has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Typhoon Meranti (Bagyong Ferdie) is currently moving across the Philippine Sea, rapidly intensifying from a mere Tropical Storm yesterday to a Category 3 Typhoon this morning. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 1,060km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 185kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Meranti is currently moving westward at 25kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Babuyan and Batanes Group of Islands.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Meranti with a pinhole eye that is starting to become more prominent by the hour. The system is currently moving through excellent environmental conditions in the Philippine Sea with weak wind shear, high ocean heat content, and excellent outflow. We expect Meranti to continue intensifying for another 36 hours, possibly becoming a Super Typhoon.

Current forecasts call for Meranti to continue moving generally west northwestward under the influence of the subtropical ridge. Some computer models are still split, however, as to the eventual track of this typhoon. One camp takes Meranti towards Southern Taiwan while the other takes it farther west into Southern China.

As for immediate impacts, Meranti will start to affect extreme Northern Philippines (mainly the islands north of Luzon) as early as Tuesday morning. Parts of Southern Taiwan will also feel the impacts of Meranti by then. Afterwards, there is still uncertainty as to where it will make landfall.

We'll have another update later today.

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