Thursday, July 2, 2015

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #5

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070315

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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom has significantly weakened this morning after being briefly upgraded to a Typhoon last night. The storm center was last located approximately 530km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving westward at 10kph.

A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian as per the National Weather Service. Please adhere to their latest bulletins and local statement by clicking HERE (NWS Website)

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite imagery shows the low-level center has been left fully exposed with the main convective activity being displaced to the southwest. Aside from moderate easterly wind shear, Chan-Hom is also interacting with a tropical disturbance to the northeast which is causing upper-level convergence which is not usually conducive for tropical development. This feature has caused an unexpected weakening for Chan-Hom as it nears the Marianas Islands.

With that said, residents in Guam and nearby islands should still prepare for a possibility of a strong Tropical Storm or maybe still a typhoon depending on how fast Chan-Hom can recover and re-establish its structure over the next 12 to 24 hours. We are expecting the center of the storm to pass near Guam and Rota late Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Rains, strong winds, and high waves will dominate the region over the next few days.

Chan-Hom is, then, forecast to resume intensifying at a steadier pace early next week as it moves across the Philippine Sea. But as of right now, it is a waiting game as we await Chan-Hom's attempt at re-intensification.

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