Thursday, July 2, 2015

Tropical Storm Linfa (Egay) Update #2

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 070315

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Tropical Depression 10W has intensified into Tropical Storm Linfa (Bagyong Egay) this morning. The storm's center of circulation was last located approximately 620km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Linfa is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Isabela and Cagayan. The said provinces are forecast to experience winds of up to 60kph in the next 36 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection remaining strong in the immediate vicinity of Linfa's circulation. However, moderate easterly shear is slowing down the intensification trend. Furthermore, much of the convective activity is actually being displaced west of the circulation center due to the said wind shear. This has led to widespread rains moving into parts of the Bicol and Visayas Regions.Some places have already seen rainfall amounts of 30 to 50mm with additional 50 to as much as 100mm possible in the next 24 hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track for Tropical Storm Linfa (Egay) shows a continued west northwesterly movement over the next few days. The storm is forecast to move close to the Northern Luzon area by tomorrow and will likely bring widespread rains across the region this weekend. Batanes Islands will also feel the impacts of Linfa as it moves to the area by Sunday and into Monday as a possible Category 1 Typhoon.

The overall track for Linfa (Egay) will hinge on the approaching Tropical Storm Chan-Hom as the latter is forecast to influence the movement of Linfa by early next week. Either way, we advise residents in the region, especially in the Northern Luzon area to continue monitoring the developments for Linfa and should be vigilant in case the storm is forecast to bring direct impacts.

We'll have a separate update for Tropical Storm Chan-Hom later today.

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