Monday, July 6, 2015

Typhoon Chan-Hom Update #9

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070715

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Chan-Hom has intensified into a Category 1 Typhoon this morning as it continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 1,000km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Chan-Hom is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective bands wrapping around Typhoon Chan-Hom's large, yet rugged, eye. Radial outflow has also improved and the warm sea surface temperatures of the Philippine Sea are aiding intensification. There is also plenty of moisture inflow to fuel that strengthening.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest Forecast Track for Typhoon Chan-Hom has been moved slightly southward compared to our previous forecast from yesterday. We are still expecting Chan-Hom to continue moving generally northwestward but it may move closer to Taiwan than previously thought. It may also undergo a period of rapid intensification which may push it towards Category-4 strength by Thursday.

Typhoon Chan-Hom is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by early tomorrow (Wednesday) and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Falcon' by PAGASA. While we are not expecting any direct impacts from Chan-Hom, it will still be enhancing the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) which may bring continuous rainfall across parts of the Philippines in the coming days.

By Thursday and Friday, Chan-Hom is forecast to move close to Miyako Islands of Japan and close to the northern portions of Taiwan. Dangerous stormy conditions are likely to impact these areas later this week. After that, Chan-Hom is forecast to make landfall in either the Fujian or Zhejiang Province of China as a Category 3 Typhoon.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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