Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Typhoon Chan-Hom (Falcon) Update #11

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070915

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Chan-Hom (Bagyong Falcon) has slightly intensified into a Category 2 Typhoon as it nears the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. The eye of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 400km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 780km east northeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Chan-Hom is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.

Japan Meteorological Agency has issued Storm and High Waves Warning for Okinawa and nearby islands. Meanwhile, a Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR) Level 2 have been implemented for Kadena Air Force Base. 

Please consult JMA for the latest official warnings and bulletins by clicking HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows slight improvements regarding Chan-Hom's structure. The eyewall is more defined and convective activity has become more consolidated near the core. However, the large size of Chan-Hom's circulation continue to ingest dry air limiting the intensification. With that said, the large circulation is also translating to huge wind field. In fact, parts of Okinawa are already seeing wind gusts of up to 100kph. We expect winds to increase in intensity tonight along with the threat of light to moderate rains brought by Chan-Hom's outer rain bands.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Chan-Hom will continue moving northwestward over the next few days, intensifying along the way and should reach Category 3 intensity by tomorrow. We expect the center of Chan-Hom to pass near the islands of Miyako-jima and Ishigaki-jima tonight and tomorrow. Winds of up to 160kph along with heavy rains and high waves are possible in these islands through the next 36 hours. Even Okinawa will see some stormy conditions tonight and into tomorrow.

Typhoon Chan-Hom is forecast to make landfall in the Fujian-Zheiiang Border by Saturday morning. Dangerous storm conditions are expected in these regions. Chan-Hom will then turn northward and will pass near Shanghai by Sunday morning bringing stormy conditions in the metro region this weekend.

Please note that while Typhoon Chan-Hom (Bagyong Falcon) is not expected to directly impact the Philippines, the enhanced southwest monsoon will continue to bring wet weather across the majority of the country in the next few days. Rainfall amounts of more than 100mm are still possible especially in Western Luzon and Visayas, including Metro Manila. Please listen to your local news for the latest class suspension and other bulletins by the officials.

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!

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