Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Typhoon Chan-Hom (Falcon) Update #10

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070815

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Typhoon Chan-Hom (Bagyong Falcon) continues to move across the Philippine Sea today. The eye of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 900km southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 1,400km northeast of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Chan-Hom is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Typhoon Chan-Hom remains large and very rugged. Convective activity remains strong especially on the southeastern quadrant and the radial outflow remains strong as well. However, the very large circulation of Chan-Hom is very susceptible to dry air entrainment. This absorption of dry air is what is hindering Chan-Hom from rapidly intensifying. With that said, we are still expecting the storm to intensify slowly in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest forecast track for Typhoon Chan-Hom (Bagyong Falcon) remains generally the same from our forecast issued yesterday. We are still expecting the typhoon to continue moving northwestward and should make landfall in the Fujian-Zhejiang Province area by Saturday morning. Chan-Hom may intensify into a high-end Category 3 (even a Cat 4) typhoon before it makes landfall in China. And before that, Chan-Hom is expected to bring stormy conditions across Northern Taiwan and parts of the Ryukyu Islands of Japan.

While not expected to directly impact the Philippines, Typhoon Chan-Hom will be enhancing the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) which will continue bringing widespread rains across parts of the Philippines. Many areas are forecast to receive well upwards of 100mm of rainfall in the next few days. Urban flooding, especially across Metro Manila, are possible through the remainder of this week. Please consult with PAGASA and your local news outlets for the latest class suspensions and flooding situations in your area.

We'll have another update later this evening. Stay safe!

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