Sunday, July 5, 2015

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #8

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070615

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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to slowly intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea away from the Marianas Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 500km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the core of Tropical Storm Chan-Hom has become better organized this morning with good convective bands wrapping around the low-level circulation center. The storm brought more than a foot (12 inches or 320mm) of rain in Guam causing flooding in many locations. Thankfully, stormy conditions are pretty much over across the Marianas.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest Forecast Track shows a generally northwesterly track for Chan-Hom. We have seen a good consensus among the computer models and forecast agencies in the region and so we have moderate to good confidence with our current forecast.

During the next few days, we expect Chan-Hom to continue slowly intensifying, possibly becoming a typhoon by tomorrow. It may peak at Category 3 intensity later this week as it moves near the Southern Japanese Islands. If that comes to fruition, the island of Okinawa might see dangerous stormy conditions later this week with the possibility of typhoon-force conditions occurring.

We'll have another update later this evening.

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