Sunday, October 5, 2014

Typhoon Vongfong Update #3

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 100614

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Typhoon Vongfong has slightly intensified this morning as it moves away from the Mariana Islands. The system was last located approximately 340km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Vongfong is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast of Vongfong and its associated rain bands are beginning to pull away from Guam and the Marianas Islands. The region received nearly 150mm of rain and winds of up to 120kph battered the islands as Vongfong moved through swiftly overnight. Weather conditions in the region will continue to get better as the typhoon moves away.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Vongfong is forecast to continue heading generally northwestward over the next 2 to 3 days. Wind shear should decrease and the warm sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea is forecast to promote continued intensification. Vongfong will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be named "Bagyong Ompong" by PAGASA. However, we are not expecting Vongfong to directly affect the Philippines.

By Wednesday, we are expecting Vongfong to start turning to the north as it rounds the Subtropical Ridge. This will keep the system away from the Philippines. By this time, we are also expecting Vongfong to intensify to a Category 4 typhoon. While it is still too early to say where the typhoon will end up, current model projections show Vongfong possibly affecting Japan this weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

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