Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Typhoon Talas Update #12

Typhoon Talas continues to track closer to Japan. It was last located approximately 1000km southwest of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Talas is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

Typhoon Talas continues to struggle fighting off subsidence and dry air which has kept the convective activity mainly on the eastern side. Latest IR image, however, beginning to show some signs of improvement on the western periphery. The typhoon maintains a well-defined core although haven't really established a full-fledged eyewall based on microwave imagery.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The satellite image (also from NRLMRY) below shows how huge Talas' circulation is. Tropical storm winds extend as far away as 300km from the center.

Forecasts for Talas have not really changed significantly although we have adjusted our projected landfall more to the west based on the trend today. We now think Talas will make landfall on the eastern side of the island of Shikoku by Friday afternoon (Japan Time) as a weak Typhoon with winds of around 120 to 140kph. It will then weaken to a tropical storm overnight as it traverses the terrain of Kansai/Kinki Region in Honshu. It will then exit towards the Sea of Japan by Saturday. Talas could begin extra-tropical transition as early as Sunday as it tracks well west of Honshu and Hokkaido.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL); times on that map are Philippine Time--just add one hour for Japan Time.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 083111

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