Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Typhoon Talas Update #13

Typhoon Talas was last located approximately 950km southwest of Tokyo or about 700km south southeast of the island of Shikoku. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Talas is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

Latest IR image indicates that convection is now blowing up all around the center with the coldest of cloud tops showing up in the northern half. Conditions remain favorable up to landfall with weak wind shear and warm sea temperatures. An upper-level low near the system, however, has been inhibiting convection for days now. Most models and agencies still think Talas will strengthen a little more before making landfall.


Computer models are starting to come into agreement with Talas' track. The consensus now takes Typhoon Talas towards the island of Shikoku as early as Friday noon (Japan Time). We still have to resolve the timing and strength differences; we should have a better idea on those aspects by tomorrow. Talas will the track across Honshu, passing through the regions of Chugoku and Kinki. Talas should exit to the Sea of Japan by Saturday and will begin extra tropical transition afterwards.

Please stay tuned for our forecast map later today.
Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 090111

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