Thursday, September 1, 2011

Typhoon Talas Update #14

Typhoon Talas continues to move ever closer towards Japan. It was last located approximately 860km southwest of Tokyo or about 580km south southeast of Shikoku. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Talas is moving north northwestward at 15kph.

Latest IR image shows convective activity remains weak and fragmented although it is now encompassing almost all quadrants. Outflow remains very good; wind shear is weak and sea surface temperatures are still warm. It remains to be seen, however, if Talas will be able to intensify more. Right now, the system is just so big that it is sucking a lot of dry air and has never really established a fully developed eyewall. Recent microwave images show improvements; we'll have to continue monitoring to see if it will still strengthen. As I said, conditions remain favorable up to landfall.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Forecasts are now in a very good agreement towards a potential landfall in the island of Shikoku by Friday night (Japan Time). Still some minor differences though with the exact point as well as intensity and timing. We are still forecasting Talas to hit land as a weak typhoon with winds of around 120 to 140kph. Due to its immense size, conditions should begin to deteriorate in the regions of Shikoku and Kinki as early as tonight. Outer rain bands from Talas are actually already being picked up by the radar from JMA.

My Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

After moving through Shikou, Talas will weaken to a tropical storm as it tracks across the prefectures of Okayama, Hyogo, Kyoto, Hiroshima, and Tottori. By Saturday, Talas should be out of land and moving into the sea of Japan. It will then accelerate to the northeast and could begin extra-tropical transition as early as Sunday as it moves well west of Northern Honshu/Hokkaido.

The image below is what I call the Typhoon Risk Map (a new feature here in this blog). It basically outlines the potential significant impacts from an approaching typhoon--in this case, Talas.

Typhoon Risk Map (Not Official, please listen to your local authorities for the official warnings)

As you can see above, the seas outlined in red will experience the highest risk for storm surges with wave heights that could reach as high as 6 feet. The highest impacts will likely be felt in and around the Kii Channel Surrounding eastern Shikoku and the Kii Peninsula. As the surge generated by Talas moves nearer, it will get funneled through the Kii Channel increasing the height. Seto Inland Sea could also experience high storm surges as Talas Approaches. The yellow outline indicates medium risk for storm surges with heights of around 2 to 4 feet.

The areas under the green box will likely experience heavy rain with rainfall amounts ranging from 100 to 200mm in 24 hours. Mountainous areas and those places that get under heavy bands could get upwards of up to 300mm or more! This raises the risk for flash floods and landslides so please listen to the news for any announcement of evacuations and other warnings.

The blue area (Shikoku) will experience typhoon force winds of up to 120kph sustained. The areas shaded in pink will experience tropical storm-force winds or weaker. Based on the latest satellite analysis, tropical storm winds extend as far away as 400km so right now, I've decided to put much of Western Honshu and eastern Kyushu for risk of seeing strong winds of up to 100kph.

Please note that our risk map is just an approximation of effects based on the latest data that we have. It is very likely that some areas here will not get the effects that we are expecting. Nevertheless, this graphic should point out which areas are vulnerable and people here should really prepare and closely monitor the advancing typhoon.

We will have another update tomorrow morning.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 090111

1 comment:

  1. Thank you for the interesting updates. I also started on my blog a page with video updates from Talas Typhoon. I am leaving in Kobe, Kansai region. Here is the link:

    All the best!