Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tropical Update

While we currently don't have any tropical storms here in the Western Pacific, we are still watching two areas for potential cyclone development this week.

First off, we have Invest 94W near Chuuk. This low pressure area is still in the early stages of development. Weak to moderate wind shear (10-20kts) exists near 94W. Computer models are hinting at a slow development over the next 2 to 3 days. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this disturbance so please always check back here for the latest.

Another area that we are watching is a disturbance over the South China Sea. This low pressure area/mesoscale convective system is exhibiting some low-level circulation. IR images also showing vigorous convective activity within that center. Radar from Hainan showing some curved banding of rainclouds moving northwestward. If direction and speed does not change, this blob of convection could reach Hainan later tonight. Based on radar and IR imagery, Hainan and Guangdong Provinces could get widespread moderate to heavy rain. JMA and JTWC are not mentioning this system at all but we'll still watch this in case the agencies consider this as a tropical system.

Meanwhile, numerous afternoon thunderstorms continue to affect large parts of the Philippines. This storms could bring as much as 50mm of rain in just six hours which could trigger flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas as well as urban flooding in major cities. ITCZ is also affecting much of Visayas and Mindanao bringing cloudy skies with medium chances of rain.

IR Analysis (image taken from NOAA)
We will have another tropical update tomorrow for details on 94W and the Western Pacific as a whole.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 081611

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