Tuesday, August 30, 2011

TS Nanmadol and TY Talas Update

Nanmadol weakens to a weak tropical storm as it stalls just east of Fujian. We were expecting landfall to have occured by now but the system seemed to have remained stationary over the Taiwan Strait. The center of circulation was last located approximately 80km east of Xiamen. Maximum sustained winds of around 65kph gusting to 95kph.

Xiamen Airport is currently reporting winds of 20 to 30kph winds with a pressure of around 995mb, which agrees well with the estimates from weather agencies. Radar from CMA also showing bands of rain moving inland from Nanmadol's center.

We are still forecasting landfall to occur sometime today. It will then weaken to a depression as it moves over land and should dissipate as early as tomorrow.

Typhoon Talas, on the other hand, has begun to move west northwestward in response to the building ridge of HIgh Pressure northeast of the system. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Talas is moving at a speed of 10kph.

Computer models continue to shift westward with regards to the track. It remains to be see, however, where the exact landfall point will be. Right now, the spread stretches from Shikoku to the Izu Peninsula in the Shizuoka Prefecture. Timing looks to be around Friday morning (Japan Time) as a Category 1 typhoon. It will move across Honshu, weakening to a tropical storm, and should exit into the Sea of Japan as early as Saturday. After that, Talas should begin extra-tropical transition as it interacts with the baroclinic zone in the north.

We'll discuss more on the track later in our 4pm update.
Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 083111

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