Tuesday, August 30, 2011

TS Nanmadol and TY Talas Update

Tropical Storm Nanmadol (Formerly Bagyong Mina) continues to weaken as it approaches the southeastern coast of China.It was last located approximately 90km west of Xiamen or about 240km southwest of Taipei. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75kph gusting to around 100kph. Nanmadol is moving north northwestward at around 10kph.

Recent VIS Satellite image shows a partially exposed center. The IR also showing the majority of convection is displaced south of the center. This latest radar image from CMA shows bands of light to moderate rain which propagates from the center is now moving across much of Fujian Province. Areas across this province should get rainfall amounts of around 100-200mm in 24 hours. Watch out for landslides and flashfloods in these places.

Radar image from CMA

Forecast for Nanmadol has been adjusted slightly north. We now think the storm will pass north of Xiamen later tonight or very early tomorrow (Wednesday). Closest point of approach will be within 100km of Xiamen. Nanmadol will then continue moving inland, weakening to a tropical depression as early as Wednesday afternoon and should dissipate over Jianxi Province by Thursday.

My Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Talas

Typhoon Talas continues to move slowly north northwestward at arounnd 10kph. It is still well south of Japan--about 1200km south of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 150kph.

Visual satellite imagery still depicting Talas as a very large cyclone with a diameter of well over 1000km. Infra-red image also showing increasing convective activity from all quadrants. Wind shear remains very weak in that area and sea surface temperatures continue to be favorable for further development.


We have shifted our forecast track more to the left to account for the recent trends among computer models. There is still a very large disparity, however, among tracks by these models; a spread of over 1,000km in day 4! Some models showing a hit in Kyushu while some takes Talas to Tokyo. The ECMWF has been the most consistent among those that we use which still shows a landfall east of Kanto by Friday.


We expect Talas to continue moving northwestward and should turn more to the north northeast by Thursday. We have limited Talas' future intensification due to it being a very large cyclone which has the tendency to suck more dry air. Furthermore, wind shear is also forecast to increase as by Thursday as it moves towards Southern Japan. We are thinking of a landfall east of the Kii Peninsula by Friday morning (Japan Time) as a Category 1 typhoon. It will then track across Honshu, weakening to a tropical storm, before exiting into the Sea of Japan by Saturday.

Please remember that forecast tracks can and do change as we get nearer to landfall so please always check with us for updates.
Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 083011

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