Thursday, August 25, 2011

Super Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina) Update #9

Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) has rapidly intensified during the past 12 hours and is now a Category 4 Super Typhoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased significantly to 240kph gusting to 295kph. STY Nanmadol was last located approximately 135km east of Palanan, Isabela or about 170km east of Ilagan. The super typhoon has begun to move to the northwest albeit at a very slow pace of around 5kph.

Latest VIS image seen below (from NRLMRY) shows the very well-defined eye of Nanmadol/Mina just offshore of Luzon with the expanding and symmetrical Central Dense Overcast (CDO) now affecting the eastern coastal sections in Northern Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan. Torrential rains, gusty winds, and rough surf with storm surges are highly possible along these areas.

As of 11am today, PAGASA has raised Signal Warning #3 for Isabela, Cagayan, Calayan, and Babuyan Group of Islands. Signal #2 for Northern Aurora, Quirino, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao, and Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #1 is hoisted for Rest of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, and Abra.

We are still waiting from the 00z model package although we have put up our short-term forecast as seen above. Based on Nanmadol/Mina's track, we are thinking that it won't make landfall. It will have its closes point of approach less than 100km later tonight into tomorrow as it tracks just east of Cagayan. Typhoon-force winds of up to 120-150kph extend as far away as 80km from the eye. Tropical storm winds extend more than 150km away. Areas under Signal #3 will continue to see strong typhoon gusts for the next 12 to 24 hours. Please heed the warnings from your local officials as well as from PAGASA.

We will have a Video Update by 3pm today to be followed by a text update at approximately 4:30pm later today.
Issued (0430 UTC) 12:30pm PhT 082611

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